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Essays

 

Iraq – Fragmentation Or Civil War ?

 
   

 

H . S. SORAN .
The general situation of Iraq, particularly security circumstances and unprecedented anarchism, has attracted the keen and diligent attention of all the political commentators and analysts of the world. Everyday, repeatedly, we see terrible scenes of suicide, mass murder, devastating explosions, dim smoke and blazing fire on different TV screens, which terrify the soul and make the conscience of every human being tremble, and remind of the Shiite's fabulous stories of killing the Prophet Mohammad's family members by their relatives of the same Arab clan, Yazid, Shemr etc, for seizing the political realm, who decapitated Imam Hussein, Abbas and others, closed the drinking water hoses to them and were the symbol of cruelty and barbarism in history. Of course in this analysis, I do not intend to blame those tales or side anyone, because I do not know exactly what was happening at Karbala or Samara 1300 years ago, but I find a resemblance between those fabulous stories and the shaking facts of today in Arab populated part of Iraq. May be, these serious conflicts of today have a deep root in those old events and have a religious and political overcoat of revenge. But for any reason, never such savage acts could be justified.

Now the world community is encountering this dangerous conflict of Iraq, which resembles a political incurable cancer. This cancer may develop into a metastasis condition soon and propagate its drastic roots in Kurdistan, other safe parts of Iraq, neighboring countries and even Middle East; and may evolve into World War Three.

At present situation, according to any possible political, strategic, diplomatic and multilateral calculations, there is no cure for the treatment of this political pathology, except fragmentation of Iraq in 3 independent regions: Shiite Arabs, Sunni Arabs and Kurds; or one has to accept Civil War, which has already started. Any hesitation and postponement of the fragmentation alternative is fatal. Those 3 heterogeneous and antagonist communities can not reintegrate together peacefully .

 

 

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Vebūna malperź 21.06.2005